ISSN electrónico: 2007-8951
Volumen 49/ Número 192, enero-marzo 2018

The Physical Oil and Oil Futures Markets: Transmission of the Mean and Volatility

Raúl de Jesús Gutiérrez

This paper sets out to use the bivariate VEC-EGARCH model with constant correlations to analyze the process by which the mean and volatility are transmitted between the crude futures markets and physical oil markets in Mexico. The results point to the existence of bilateral performance information transmission patterns with stronger effects from the futures markets to the physical markets, while the evidence for the effects of bilateral volatility transmission only exists between the oil futures and physical oil markets in Olmeca. The empirical findings are relevant to governmental authorities and consumers because they aid in designing cross-hedging strategies that mitigate exposure to the price risk in Mexican oil.

Key Words: Mexico, oil, futures markets, physical market, volatility, bivariate VEC-EGARCH model.

Argentine Energy Policy: Taking Stock of the Period 2003-2015

Natalia Ceppi

Energy policy, like any other public policy, requires the powers of the government to devise precise and coordinated provisions to efficiently manage a strategic sector. Every country adopts its own energy policy based on factors like resource endowment, macroeconomic policy, the regulatory framework, and its own vision of the relationship between the state and market in a given field, to name a few factors. This paper analyzes energy policy in twenty-first century Argentina, considering its most notable peculiarities, how it has changed and remained the same, and the principal challenges looming ahead.

Key Words: Energy policy, hydrocarbons, natural gas, renewable energy, production, and consumption, economic development.

Sustainable Development and “Green” Concepts

Mariana Conte Grand y Vanesa D´Elia

In the aftermath of the financial crisis that broke out in 2008, new terms to talk about sustainable development started to emerge: the "green" economy and "green" growth. Some countries supported their usage and others did not. The literature witnessed the recrudescence of the debate on the relationship between economic activity and taking care of the environment, divided into three stances: degrowth advocates, "green" growth backers, and the growth-agnostics. This paper dives into the different “green” terms, paying special attention to the case of Argentina. Unlike in previous papers, which have analyzed country interventions in international forums, the methodology here was to search the web pages of the most relevant local players. The most traditional terms ("sustainable development") were strongly predominant, and the concepts of "green" economy or "green" growth were few and far between.

Key Words: Argentina, sustainable development, green economy, environment, environmental concepts.

The Mexican Transnational Ethnic Economy: Los Angeles, California

Brianda Peraza y Blas Valenzuela

This research analyzes the nature of the Mexican ethnic economy developing in the cities of Huntington Park and Lynwood, California, in the United States. Using census databases and the results of 145 surveys administered to and 25 interviews with a range of people in 2012, this paper documents the existence of a Transnational Ethnic Economy (TEE), which goes further than the traditional definition of the "ethnic economy" concept” and is organized and develops in such a way that includes individual businesses, businesses with multiple branches, supermarket networks, and a commercial consortium in the study zone, with bonds and relationships that transcend national borders.

Key Words: Transnational ethnic economy, immigrant entrepreneurs, ethnic products, ethnic market, wage work.

Public Spending, the Competitiveness Index, and Social Policy in Mexico

Isaac Sánchez-Juárez

This paper was drafted using the Social Competitiveness Index (SCI) compiled by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP-Mexico) to analyze progress and/or backsliding in the areas of healthcare, education, and job income in the Mexican Republic’s 32 states over the time period 2005-2014. The aim was also to use panel data techniques to evaluate the relationship between the SCI and public spending, finding that public spending on social issues was negatively related to the SCI (elasticity was -0.5764%). In conjunction with that, it was demonstrated that a lack of social competitiveness existed alongside growth in public spending, leading to the conclusion that the social policy was ineffective, on top of an economic policy that only drove scant growth in production.

Key Words: Social Competitiveness Index, Human Development Index, social public spending, econometric model.

Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy and Monetary Stability in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru

Eufemia Basilio

This paper analyzes the relationship between the financial instability generated by short-term capital flows in the absence of control mechanisms and the restrictions facing the implementation of counter-cyclical fiscal policies in the inflation-targeting regime, using as a springboard the recent financial crises in, specifically, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, showing how an increase in the issuance of public bonds to, via interventions in the exchange rate market, sterilize the effects of short-term capital flows on the monetary base is a source of endogenous instability, because this mechanism entails risks for the exchange rate and interest rate.

Key Words: Fiscal and monetary policy, capital flows, fiscal consolidation, public debt, inflation targeting.

Subnational Developmentalism for the New Century

Walid Tijerina

Economic opening and the dearth of federal-sponsored sectoral industrial policies pose a novel challenge for subnational governments at the dawn of the new century. This paper will argue that rather than the Mexican state entirely abandoning industrial policy, what really happened was that developmentalist functions were transferred to or appropriated by the subnational level. To do so, two states in the Mexican Republic whose sectoral industrial policies sharply contrast with the federal government-level backpedaling were examined. The literature of “new developmentalism” will serve as the backdrop to this new subnational role in Mexico, marking a divergence from the neoliberal paradigm at the federal level.

Key Words: Nuevo León, Querétaro, industrial policy, subnational governments, new developmentalism, industrial clusters.